The confetti mill

Look I am no economist, but this issue is burning in my brain so I want to understand my own thoughts through the ever cathatic act of writing.

The US economy and its younger, smaller and ever so slightly less unbalanced younger brother the UK economy, is a weird mess of an economic imperial centre. Bluntly it produces much less than it consumes. We see this in the levels of consumer debt that make up for a lack of wages, we see this in the level of government debt which makes up for a lack of tax receipts, we see this in the level of financial service sector profits which makes up for a lack of manufacturing. We see this in the size of the service industry itself which poorly substitutes for actual production. Before you right me off as an industrial romantic, compare the trade current account's of Germany/ Japan, industrialised, and developed nations that have strong and robust manufacturing industries, or for that matter my current abode South Korea.

I have been reading my Joe Stiglitz and Robert Reich. I really do not claim to be even an amateur economist but what I see in this global economic system we inhabit is something really bizarre. Basically we have a global ponzi scheme called the Bretton Woods 2. US corporations use the entrenched position of the US dollar, US economic power in the world to outsource almost all productive processes to the 3rd World. All that is productive is done in the 3rd world, what is left is a shadow economy of services which require varying degrees of skill, from high tech design and IT, to selling. The United States is for all intents and purposes living of the legacy of its 1950s boom. It became the centre of world consumption after the war and from this it justified its position as the world's economic hegemon.

As a result we have this truly bizarre position where the United States consumer and government borrow far more than they produce. We have a pyramid of interlocking debt obligations which are unserviable and ultimately inflationary. For instance the US government has a debt of approximately $14 Trillion, the US banking sector has massive debts which are hidden beneath opaque accounting practices and federal guarentees. The US household debt is around the same level as that of the total Federal Government debt ( http://chartingtheeconomy.com/?p=1210). In any other economy this level of debt would result in inflation and probably hyperinflation. Money represents goods and services. If the money supply is much larger than production as a result of debt you should see inflation which lessens the value of money in order to correct for a lack of production.

The UK situation sufficit to say is not much different. When I was a radical anarchist in my teens and my friends, family and my friend's families would lecture me about the incentives, effieneny, and general victory of capitalism as a model for economic, social and political stability and progress. Its seem they were talking out of their hats. The Business community and the mainstream economists been either chronically deluded or willfully deceiving. The finance sector and the services based post-industrial consumption economic model is bluntly merely the short term enrichment of the rich, and the growth of living standards of the middle class through unsustainable debt attached to asset bubbles. House prices fueled increases in consumption not wages. Robert Reich tells us that productivity continued to rise through out this period but there was no increase in wages. There are plenty of economists who saw it, I didn't really understand at the time. At the time I ceathed with snobbish rage at the empty consumption lifestyle. Its complacence, its environmental implications, its emptiness.

Where did it start? Deindustrialisation in the US and UK started in earnest with the New Right and Neo-Liberalism. Services supplanted industry, and especially finance supplanted all other services. The experiment is not over yet, the finance industry lives on under the goodwill of the former imperial glories of the British government and the US treasury. It is the prestige and corner stone status of these two governments and the willing collaboration of other more successful exporters and developing countries that maintain a system which should have long since ended in default, disgrace and mass suffering.

Strangely though, for me I start to see signs of optimism. Maybe we can change. Maybe environmental crisis, new technology and manufacturing will resurrect the Anglo-American economise and drive them in new and more productive directions that will serve the average person.

성군정책을 이해하는걸 시도하자!

선군정책은 일반적인한국사람한테 모르는거이고해서 이글을 쓰기로했다. 북한에대한 관심이 생기자마자 선군정책을 봤는데도 남한사람들은 보도방송을 관람하면서도 선군정책을 들어본적이없는것같다.

1996년에는 북한에서 대단히 심각하게 기근된체로 김정일이 선군정책을 전파시켰다. 북한 당국자밖에 왜그사상을 전파시켰는줄모르나 외교의필요하기로 (the needs of foreign policy) 생각한다면 김정일은 외부세계의감지에게 (the perception of the outside world) 국가의권력과 권위를 늘리고싶어한것같다. 아시아의공산주의국가말고는 소련과 관련이있는국가들이 모두 멸망됐으니까 다른국가바탕으로는 북한의적에게 안정성을 과시하고싶어한것같다.

그러나 선군정책은 근분적으로 새로운정책아니기란다. 대부분 1960년대부터는 북한'수뇌부'에게 군국화정책이 이뤄졌는데다가 매년 이정책이 심해졌다. 김일성은 폭력적으로만 '조국'통일을 성공할수있었을뿐이라고 본것같다. 그러니까 선군정책을 통해 군사와관계가있는 정부의비용이 변경하지않은것같으나 국가기관이 바뀐것같다. 이정책 때문에 내부선전의강조되는것이 바뀠는데다가 공동체를 통제하는방법이 변화된것같다. 로동당(노동당)의단체가 약해진대신에 군당국은 계획경제도 주민의생활과관렴있는규칙을 실시시키는걸 통제하게된것같다. 그렇다도해도 선군정책이 신설된것은 사회의 불안정성을 예방할수없는데 식량난 때문에 데체로 북한시민들은 배급제도로 식량을 수령할수없으면 영업을통해 식량을 구입하게됐다. 그리고 식량난이 악화될수록 범죄를저지르는행위의경우가 신속히 높아졌다. 예를들면 집단공장에서 집단농민들은 국가의농작물을 도용하고서 군인들이 국가에게 수확하도록 시골로 출동하게했다. 그런것은 기근전에 절대로 발생하지않았다. 또한 한국전쟁이 휴전명령됐을때부터 기근전까지 북한에 탈출해시도한사림이 수백명밖에 없었다. 기근때문에 이동의조절을 실시하지못하게됐다.