It is a little known fact but in the 1960s the North Koreans launched a campaign of terrorism, violence and infitration into South Korea in an attempt to stimulate an almost non-existent revolutionary movement in the South to mobilise the masses and rise up against their colonial masters (I promise I am being tongue-in-cheek). There is a label for this that I have not seen widely used in scholarship, but nonetheless wikipedia has the reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Korean_War . As the trusty wikipedia page lists, the North Koreans became incredibly provocative and brazen in this period. If you doubt the veracity of the page then I will be happy to refer you to some reliable books that coroborate wikipedia.
Anyway yes, the North Koreans went so far as trying to assasinate the South Korean president Park Chung-hee. One gets a sense of the motives from the international circumstances of the time. South Korea was finally rising, a phoneix from the fires of the Korean War. Concomitantly, Vietnam was ablaze with an 'anti-imperialist' war of its own. The Vietcong must have appealed to the sensibilities of the North Korean leadership. By this time North Korea's elite was almost completely monolithic; it was composed of the Guerilla comrades of Kim Il Sung who fought with him during the 1930s. The idea of an armed insurrectionary guerilla struggle that mimiced the North Vietnamese strategy must have been very appealing. The country had been heavily militarising since the early 1960s, after the initial rehabilitation of North Korean heavy industry post-(1st) Korean War. Therefore an educated guess would be that Kim sought to ferment uprising and struggle in the South that could be used as a pretext for an invasion of the south. He went so far as to set up a Southern party 'The Revolutionary Party of Reunification' a meager and ineffectual group of Southern True Believers. From here came heightened border provocations, then two attempted assasinations of Park Chung-hee; first a raid on his residence, then another botched attempt that killed his wife instead. At around the same time as the first attempt in 1968, the North interdicted a US vessel,the Pueblo. The crowning and final event was the 'Axe Murder incident' where two US servicemen where murdered by North Korean soldiers for attempting to trim a tree.
Obviously the Cheonan incident is serious, and the mindless killing of young Korean men is abhorrent. Nevertheless, by comparison to the 'Second Korean War' this is a small incident. Furthermore the North Koreans have done even worse; they blew up a South Korean civilian airliner in 1987 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Flight_858).
This is a time of heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula, an icy freeze has set into Inter-Korean relations. Since the end of the Sunshine Policy, North Korea has repeatedly provoked the South, we learnt yesterday that the North sent two agents masquerading as refugees to kill Hwang Jang-yop (the highest ranking defector), they did not succeed but this is another compelling example the brazenness of the North. Nonetheless, there will not be a Korean War, do not fear, America and China would never allow it. The North needs Chinese material support for its continued existence, and China does not seek a war that could potentially destroy the Chinese economic miracle. The South may tough talk, but a war would destroy Seoul and endanger 10s of millions of Korean lives.
Thursday, 22 April 2010
Monday, 19 April 2010
The Prism of Yushin
The Yushin System was the constitution of South Korea from 1972 to 1979; technically the system remained until the early 1980s, but really it was merely a constitutional codification of a personal and oligopolistic dictatorship in South Korea. Park Chung-hee was president of South Korea from 1961 to 1979; he overthrew the democratic but sclerotic 2nd Republic in 1961 in a military coup d'état. After 5 years in charge of the country he converted his rule from a Junta to a nominally civilian government, where the military swapped fatigues for suits but to a large extent the political structure remained highly authoritarian and the state highly militarised. Yet there was competitive elections, which were not rigged, Park won the presidential election in 1967 by the skin of his teeth. The other candidate Yun Bo-seon did not inspire the popular imagination, but nor did rule by military barons. However Park won because he had control of the media and dominance over the organs of civil society; when this is combined with a growing record of success in economic development and a highly appealing strident anti-communism, one has all the ingredients of a highly manipulated but procedurally free election.
However, whilst Park won in 1967, it was unlikely that he could do so again in 1972. Transparent rule by force the 3rd Republic may not have been. But its harsh labour conditions, its courtship of Japanese business (Japan was considered the enemy, as a result of Korea's 35 years of colonisation), and most importantly the yawning gap between elite and commoner created an untenable situation for Park as a democrat. Therefore he changed the system, the presidency would now be elected by an electoral college appointed by the president himself. There were no term limits, this represented effectively Life-presidency for Park, legally codified in a new constitution. Yushin means rebirth; it comes from the same Chinese characters as Restoration (of the Meiji Restoration).
This constitutional arrangement is associated by the modern day South Korean left with the worst excesses of the South Korean dictatorial years. It is associated with horrendous working conditions for young adults in textile factories, it is associated with violent street fights between unarmed workers and a corrupt, essentially bourgeois state. And it is associated with a revolutionary wave for democracy that finally motivated Kim jae-gyu (the director of the KCIA in 1979) to assassinate President Park who was about to repress a massive street protest.
It is through this prism that modern day South Korean leftists approach North Korea as a political entity and the coming reunification of the Koreas. They rightly predict that North Korea will be absorbed by the South Korean capitalist economy. It will become an internal colony of South Korea, economically and politically. North Korean politics will be dominated by South Korean technocratic and political elites for a generation to come and they will probably apply a very similar developmental model to the North as did President Park to the South. The North will probably become a sweatshop for world capital but especially medium sized South Korean business. The catch-up will be long and drawn out, it might take 30 years for the North Korean economy to achieve parity even with heavy infrastructural investment by the South Korean tax payer, and developmental aid, FDI etc.
This developmental model is the symbol of what is wrong with Korea's path to modernity for leftists. But not only that, it is the economic offspring and child of the Yushin system. Hence following the economic model is repeating the terrible Yushin system. So therefore to South Korean leftists, the status quo is better than the alternative. It is better to have Son'gun, the Red Flag ideology, a 'Strong and Prosperous Nation'; in short it is better to keep one of the most brutal dictatorships in world history in power than risk what was merely 7 years of South Korean history, being to some extent repeated in the North. Forgive an ends and means argument, but this is deeply disturbing. What is more so is that there are many on the Left who think like this, too blinkered by their own personal experiences to accept the fact that Park Chung-hee whilst no saint was infinitely better than Kim Il Sung and his even more cynical, tyrannical heir. Ultimately without reunification there is no hope for the North Korean people to be lifted out of the endless fight for survival that characterises a subsistence-level existence. North Korea and its people have been bankrupt since the nation was founded. The nation itself has been reliant on aid from the Socialist bloc and since its collapse China and South Korea. Concomitantly if the regime did not traffic weapons to rogue regimes and run a vast criminal empire then it could not survive. To see this system as somehow better than Yushin is unbelievably myopic, coming from people who live 80 miles away from it. It is best if the regime collapses now and is replaced by a developmental state; there will be massive problems, and if the South Korean state is not responsible enough, North Koreans will have to endure additional, and unnecessary hardships. But even if this is the case to destroy Yodok is better than not. Yodok is worse than Chon Tae-il.
However, whilst Park won in 1967, it was unlikely that he could do so again in 1972. Transparent rule by force the 3rd Republic may not have been. But its harsh labour conditions, its courtship of Japanese business (Japan was considered the enemy, as a result of Korea's 35 years of colonisation), and most importantly the yawning gap between elite and commoner created an untenable situation for Park as a democrat. Therefore he changed the system, the presidency would now be elected by an electoral college appointed by the president himself. There were no term limits, this represented effectively Life-presidency for Park, legally codified in a new constitution. Yushin means rebirth; it comes from the same Chinese characters as Restoration (of the Meiji Restoration).
This constitutional arrangement is associated by the modern day South Korean left with the worst excesses of the South Korean dictatorial years. It is associated with horrendous working conditions for young adults in textile factories, it is associated with violent street fights between unarmed workers and a corrupt, essentially bourgeois state. And it is associated with a revolutionary wave for democracy that finally motivated Kim jae-gyu (the director of the KCIA in 1979) to assassinate President Park who was about to repress a massive street protest.
It is through this prism that modern day South Korean leftists approach North Korea as a political entity and the coming reunification of the Koreas. They rightly predict that North Korea will be absorbed by the South Korean capitalist economy. It will become an internal colony of South Korea, economically and politically. North Korean politics will be dominated by South Korean technocratic and political elites for a generation to come and they will probably apply a very similar developmental model to the North as did President Park to the South. The North will probably become a sweatshop for world capital but especially medium sized South Korean business. The catch-up will be long and drawn out, it might take 30 years for the North Korean economy to achieve parity even with heavy infrastructural investment by the South Korean tax payer, and developmental aid, FDI etc.
This developmental model is the symbol of what is wrong with Korea's path to modernity for leftists. But not only that, it is the economic offspring and child of the Yushin system. Hence following the economic model is repeating the terrible Yushin system. So therefore to South Korean leftists, the status quo is better than the alternative. It is better to have Son'gun, the Red Flag ideology, a 'Strong and Prosperous Nation'; in short it is better to keep one of the most brutal dictatorships in world history in power than risk what was merely 7 years of South Korean history, being to some extent repeated in the North. Forgive an ends and means argument, but this is deeply disturbing. What is more so is that there are many on the Left who think like this, too blinkered by their own personal experiences to accept the fact that Park Chung-hee whilst no saint was infinitely better than Kim Il Sung and his even more cynical, tyrannical heir. Ultimately without reunification there is no hope for the North Korean people to be lifted out of the endless fight for survival that characterises a subsistence-level existence. North Korea and its people have been bankrupt since the nation was founded. The nation itself has been reliant on aid from the Socialist bloc and since its collapse China and South Korea. Concomitantly if the regime did not traffic weapons to rogue regimes and run a vast criminal empire then it could not survive. To see this system as somehow better than Yushin is unbelievably myopic, coming from people who live 80 miles away from it. It is best if the regime collapses now and is replaced by a developmental state; there will be massive problems, and if the South Korean state is not responsible enough, North Koreans will have to endure additional, and unnecessary hardships. But even if this is the case to destroy Yodok is better than not. Yodok is worse than Chon Tae-il.
Monday, 12 April 2010
The Renminbi issue
The key means of US imperial dominance are Economic, linked to that is political, and military dominance. As US economic power declines its global political and military power is also on the wane.
Pushing for a depegging of the Renminbi from the dollar makes sound financial sense for the US Treasury. Basically it enables the US manufacturing sector to become more competitive with China and hopefully in their minds, allows the US to close its still massive current account deficit. In the short to medium term therefore it could be a boon for the US economy; it could also increase US tax receipts as it would boost US corporate earnings. From this the US government could start to reduce its yearly deficit (although not its overall deficit which will still continue to balloon). So in the short term it makes perfect sense.
But... in the long run this spells the final deathknell for the Bretton Woods system, the final end of US financial and economic hegemony. The US Empire has been in decline since the 1970s. Vietnam represented the end of the idea of an Omnipotent US Empire that could and would do anything to stop the spread of Communism. From then on successive US governments had to chose their wars wisely, conflicts that could be easily won, for instance Grenada, the Gulf War et al. These were wars where US soldiers would be greeted as a liberator. This was to an extent trial and error, sometimes they chose well, but Somalia is an example of a bad choice.
9/11 changed the game, yet again a US administration sort to impose its will on the world; the Iraq War has multiple causes but the three that stand out are Geo-political power in the mid-east, punishing a pariah in order to show that disobedience is not an option in the US dominated world system, and third to open the Iraqi oil reserves up to foreign investment. The war showed the weakness of US military might, but also the inability of a US administration to create an obedient state with military might. It also further indebted the US federal government; when you combine this with Bush's extremely short sighted Fiscal policy (tax cuts), you have an extremely big issue. Add the current banking mess, and economic decline of the United States and you have a perfect storm. The United States today is very close to where Britain was just before it lost its empire. It is a classic example of imperial overstretch, hubris and economic decline.
The Renminbi issue is the final piece of this chain, if the Renminbi is depegged against the dollar it will no longer be a currency subservient to the value of the world's current receive currency. It will compete with the dollar on a level playing field. Now China is growing astonishingly quickly, if the depegging does not disturb this rate of growth, then the Chinese GDP will overtake the United States in the next 20 years. The Dollar has been debased by US imperial overstretch, these debt levels are not sustainable. If the Renminbi is decoupled then the dollar will gradually lose alot of its value. It will no longer be a sound currency because the debasement will make US government debt a bad investment. Therefore this decoupling will result in the end of the US dollar as the global reserve currency, and it will most probably be replaced by the Renminbi.
This will mark the beginning of modern Sino-centric world order. A move away from the current Pax Americana that will live in.
Pushing for a depegging of the Renminbi from the dollar makes sound financial sense for the US Treasury. Basically it enables the US manufacturing sector to become more competitive with China and hopefully in their minds, allows the US to close its still massive current account deficit. In the short to medium term therefore it could be a boon for the US economy; it could also increase US tax receipts as it would boost US corporate earnings. From this the US government could start to reduce its yearly deficit (although not its overall deficit which will still continue to balloon). So in the short term it makes perfect sense.
But... in the long run this spells the final deathknell for the Bretton Woods system, the final end of US financial and economic hegemony. The US Empire has been in decline since the 1970s. Vietnam represented the end of the idea of an Omnipotent US Empire that could and would do anything to stop the spread of Communism. From then on successive US governments had to chose their wars wisely, conflicts that could be easily won, for instance Grenada, the Gulf War et al. These were wars where US soldiers would be greeted as a liberator. This was to an extent trial and error, sometimes they chose well, but Somalia is an example of a bad choice.
9/11 changed the game, yet again a US administration sort to impose its will on the world; the Iraq War has multiple causes but the three that stand out are Geo-political power in the mid-east, punishing a pariah in order to show that disobedience is not an option in the US dominated world system, and third to open the Iraqi oil reserves up to foreign investment. The war showed the weakness of US military might, but also the inability of a US administration to create an obedient state with military might. It also further indebted the US federal government; when you combine this with Bush's extremely short sighted Fiscal policy (tax cuts), you have an extremely big issue. Add the current banking mess, and economic decline of the United States and you have a perfect storm. The United States today is very close to where Britain was just before it lost its empire. It is a classic example of imperial overstretch, hubris and economic decline.
The Renminbi issue is the final piece of this chain, if the Renminbi is depegged against the dollar it will no longer be a currency subservient to the value of the world's current receive currency. It will compete with the dollar on a level playing field. Now China is growing astonishingly quickly, if the depegging does not disturb this rate of growth, then the Chinese GDP will overtake the United States in the next 20 years. The Dollar has been debased by US imperial overstretch, these debt levels are not sustainable. If the Renminbi is decoupled then the dollar will gradually lose alot of its value. It will no longer be a sound currency because the debasement will make US government debt a bad investment. Therefore this decoupling will result in the end of the US dollar as the global reserve currency, and it will most probably be replaced by the Renminbi.
This will mark the beginning of modern Sino-centric world order. A move away from the current Pax Americana that will live in.
Sunday, 4 April 2010
If it was the North, Why?
We still do not know why the Cheonan sank. But if it was a missile launched by a North Korean vessel/submarine why did they do it? There are a number of possible reasons which are not mutually exclusive. This article will focus on three possible reasons, which are all valid to a certain extent.
First where was the Cheonan when it sank? On the west coast near the ‘Northern Limit Line’ as it is known in English. This was the line unilaterally drawn by the US and ROK forces at the end of the Korean War to denote the sea border between North and South Korea. The line has never been accepted by the North and has been the sight of many minor skirmishes and more major but localised naval incidents since 1953. Four deadly skirmishes have taken place in the last 11 years if we count the Cheonan. The North disputes the line for a number of reasons, namely that it was drawn without its consultation and was not included in the armistice agreement. From the US-ROK side this makes perfect sense, seeing as sea-borders are fluid (forgive the pun) but the DMZ was literally the de-facto border at the cessation of hostilities. Furthermore not only was the North not consulted, but the border is extremely advantageous to the South, the angle is entirely different to the Southward going DMZ. This is a long standing issue which flares up regularly regardless of who occupies the Blue House.
Second who is occupying the Blue House? Lee Myung bak may not be a warmonger, but his North Korea foreign policy is very dark compared to his Sunshine predecessors. The North has become used to unconditional South Korean investment (in Kaesŏng and Mount Kŭmgang) and massive amounts of unconditional aid in the form of fertiliser and free food from the South. The Sunshine policy as it was known is still looked back on by the North Korean elite with nostalgia. When I went to North Korea last summer my guides were shocked and sad to hear that Roh Moo-hyun had died, and were dismayed to hear that Kim Dae-jung was at death’s door. They had nothing to say about Lee Myung-bak which in itself said a lot. His policy of linking aid and investment to progress on the Nuclear issue has stung Pyongyang. Their response has been schizophrenic, first delivering revenge with the shooting of an innocent South Korean tourist at Mount Kŭmgang, but then offering a peace treaty in their latest New Years address. The bellicose rhetoric has resumed with a vengeance since late January. One gets the impression that the North Korean leadership does not know what to do. If it responds with threats they are ignored, if it responds with cooperation, they demonstrate their weakness and therefore begin to lose what little diplomatic leverage they have. The sinking of the Cheonan may very well be a show of strength; and it certainly does demonstrate the weakness of the Lee’s North Korean position. The South and their most important ally the United States have very little leverage over North Korea. The Sanctions regime cannot become any tougher without China reversing its policy of unconditional aid to the North. The South cannot attack the North this is both risky and a vote looser. So the North has successfully made the President of the South look very impotent if that was their intent. But there are other possible reasons.
Third the North Korean economy is in terrible shape. Late last year North Korea launched a currency redenomination which was catastrophic for the real North Korean economy. There are several theories as to why the North launched the redenomination. The North is currently in the middle of a massive propaganda drive to build a ‘Strong and Prosperous Nation’ (in Korean: 강성대국) by 2012 for Kim Il Sung’s 100th birthday. This allegedly involves stamping out market activities which are now pervasive in North Korea, reports say that over 70% of working North Koreans work in a job related to the Market. The redenomination therefore seems to have been designed to stamp out the Market by confiscating the earnings of the entrepreneurial class and the savings of the middle income class in North Korea, thus destroying the a lot of capital which created and perpetuates the Market system. This has not resulted in the recreation of the Socialist System because the government does not have the capital to distribute food to the people, nor to restart the centrally planned industrial economy. Instead it has sparked rage across the country and the temporary closure of the markets until early January. It has not brought prosperity but anarchy. Marcus Noland a seasoned observer of North Korea has speculated that the redenomination was supposed to be the coming-out party for the successor Kim Jong-eun but its cataclysmic effects have resulted mean that this was not possible. Many western observers have started to speculate that the regime’s days are numbered to a couple of years. When Kim Jong-il dies, they think the regime will probably splinter and collapse with him, leaving an extremely unpredictable and messy situation. Thus as a show of strength the Cheonan incident makes perfect sense. It could also be used by the regime to sure up support for the Jong-eun succession amongst the military top-brass in Pyongyang, if it is linked to him as Noland has speculated.
So there are three very good reasons why the North could have attacked the Cheonan. Yet it could still have been an accident resulting from faulty hardware, or Korean War era mines. It would be ironic if it turned out to be a mine from the Korean War, this being the 60th Anniversary Year of the outbreak of the Korean War.
First where was the Cheonan when it sank? On the west coast near the ‘Northern Limit Line’ as it is known in English. This was the line unilaterally drawn by the US and ROK forces at the end of the Korean War to denote the sea border between North and South Korea. The line has never been accepted by the North and has been the sight of many minor skirmishes and more major but localised naval incidents since 1953. Four deadly skirmishes have taken place in the last 11 years if we count the Cheonan. The North disputes the line for a number of reasons, namely that it was drawn without its consultation and was not included in the armistice agreement. From the US-ROK side this makes perfect sense, seeing as sea-borders are fluid (forgive the pun) but the DMZ was literally the de-facto border at the cessation of hostilities. Furthermore not only was the North not consulted, but the border is extremely advantageous to the South, the angle is entirely different to the Southward going DMZ. This is a long standing issue which flares up regularly regardless of who occupies the Blue House.
Second who is occupying the Blue House? Lee Myung bak may not be a warmonger, but his North Korea foreign policy is very dark compared to his Sunshine predecessors. The North has become used to unconditional South Korean investment (in Kaesŏng and Mount Kŭmgang) and massive amounts of unconditional aid in the form of fertiliser and free food from the South. The Sunshine policy as it was known is still looked back on by the North Korean elite with nostalgia. When I went to North Korea last summer my guides were shocked and sad to hear that Roh Moo-hyun had died, and were dismayed to hear that Kim Dae-jung was at death’s door. They had nothing to say about Lee Myung-bak which in itself said a lot. His policy of linking aid and investment to progress on the Nuclear issue has stung Pyongyang. Their response has been schizophrenic, first delivering revenge with the shooting of an innocent South Korean tourist at Mount Kŭmgang, but then offering a peace treaty in their latest New Years address. The bellicose rhetoric has resumed with a vengeance since late January. One gets the impression that the North Korean leadership does not know what to do. If it responds with threats they are ignored, if it responds with cooperation, they demonstrate their weakness and therefore begin to lose what little diplomatic leverage they have. The sinking of the Cheonan may very well be a show of strength; and it certainly does demonstrate the weakness of the Lee’s North Korean position. The South and their most important ally the United States have very little leverage over North Korea. The Sanctions regime cannot become any tougher without China reversing its policy of unconditional aid to the North. The South cannot attack the North this is both risky and a vote looser. So the North has successfully made the President of the South look very impotent if that was their intent. But there are other possible reasons.
Third the North Korean economy is in terrible shape. Late last year North Korea launched a currency redenomination which was catastrophic for the real North Korean economy. There are several theories as to why the North launched the redenomination. The North is currently in the middle of a massive propaganda drive to build a ‘Strong and Prosperous Nation’ (in Korean: 강성대국) by 2012 for Kim Il Sung’s 100th birthday. This allegedly involves stamping out market activities which are now pervasive in North Korea, reports say that over 70% of working North Koreans work in a job related to the Market. The redenomination therefore seems to have been designed to stamp out the Market by confiscating the earnings of the entrepreneurial class and the savings of the middle income class in North Korea, thus destroying the a lot of capital which created and perpetuates the Market system. This has not resulted in the recreation of the Socialist System because the government does not have the capital to distribute food to the people, nor to restart the centrally planned industrial economy. Instead it has sparked rage across the country and the temporary closure of the markets until early January. It has not brought prosperity but anarchy. Marcus Noland a seasoned observer of North Korea has speculated that the redenomination was supposed to be the coming-out party for the successor Kim Jong-eun but its cataclysmic effects have resulted mean that this was not possible. Many western observers have started to speculate that the regime’s days are numbered to a couple of years. When Kim Jong-il dies, they think the regime will probably splinter and collapse with him, leaving an extremely unpredictable and messy situation. Thus as a show of strength the Cheonan incident makes perfect sense. It could also be used by the regime to sure up support for the Jong-eun succession amongst the military top-brass in Pyongyang, if it is linked to him as Noland has speculated.
So there are three very good reasons why the North could have attacked the Cheonan. Yet it could still have been an accident resulting from faulty hardware, or Korean War era mines. It would be ironic if it turned out to be a mine from the Korean War, this being the 60th Anniversary Year of the outbreak of the Korean War.
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